Canada’s Express Entry system returned with a vengeance in the first quarter of 2023, issuing the third-most Invitations to Apply for a three-month period on record.

The 37,559 ITAs that were issued included the three largest all-program draws of all time, each inviting 7,000 candidates.

The draws were second only to the one-off Canadian Experience Class draw of February 2021 which saw more than 27,000 ITAs issued.

The first draw to focus only on Federal Skilled Worker candidates also happened in the first quarter. Previously, draws have been conducting focusing on CEC, Provincial Nominee Program and Federal Skilled Trades candidates, but never the FSWP.

A characteristic of the first three months of draws was the lack of a pattern. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada did not stick to the established Wednesday slot every two weeks, with all-program draws happening in three consecutive weeks and the FSWP draw happening on a Thursday. 

What is Express Entry?

Express Entry is an immigration system implemented by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) on January 1, 2015 which manages skilled worker applications under federal economic programs. This includes the Federal Skilled Worker Program, the Federal Skilled Trades Program the Canada Experience Class and parts of the Provincial Nominee Program.

In marked contrast to 2022, which saw the lowest number of ITAs issued for the first quarter on record, 2023 was second only to the record year of 2021 for the number of invitations.

When you consider that more than half of the 2022 Q1 ITAs happened in one draw, it puts into perspective how major a quarter has just been witnessed.

IRCC is striving towards a record target of 465,000 newcomers in 2023, with 82,880 in the Federal High Skilled category, meaning it needs to be pumping out the ITAs in the first half of the year.

However, it must also be aware of processing times. The last time IRCC issued this many ITAs, it built up a massive application backlog, which still exists for some programs.

This time around, it should be noted that there is no TR to PR pathway – the one-off immigration stream that allowed tens of thousands of applications during the pandemic. There is also a far greater processing capacity following federal investment of millions of dollars, albeit currently hampered by public worker strikes.

After posting the two biggest quarters for Express Entry draws on record in 2021, the selection system effectively went into hibernation for most of 2022 as IRCC tackled its backlog.

The same cannot be said for 2023, with the first quarter firmly up there with the most prolific on record in terms of numbers of ITAs.

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Is Canada on track for a record number of ITAs this year? You would have to say no, given the numbers issued in 2021, including two quarters when more than 44,000 candidates were invited.

However, when looking at the figures in terms of immigration levels for the next three years, it is very possible ITA numbers will increase throughout 2023 and get near the 2021 record.

Immigration is set to spike to 500,000 newcomers in 2025, of which 114,000 will come through the Federal High Skilled category that is managed by Express Entry. 

That is an increase of more than 31,000 in 2023, when a chunk of the expected highly skilled intake is taken by legacy applications to the TR to PR Pilot. 

The three all-program draws of 7,000 ITAs dominate the graph of the invitations issued per draw in the first quarter.

These invitations were issued on consecutive Wednesdays, effectively meaning that 21,000 ITAs went out in two weeks.

With a further two all-program draws issuing 5,500 ITAs, this was really a return to the engine room of the Express Entry system. Prior to the pandemic, all-program draws dominated the Express Entry landscape. After returning on a gradual basis in the second half of 2022, they are back at full capacity in 2023.

After the initial two all-program draws in January, they then took a break for six weeks as IRCC went to PNP and FSWP draws, before returning in the latter part of the quarter. 

This unpredictability, as already mentioned, was a feature of the first three months of the year. 

All Program Draws

With large numbers of invitations came the expected declining Comprehensive Ranking System scores during the quarter.

The scores for all-program draws trended down, starting at 507 in early January, to a low of 481 on March 23. 

It is true that these scores remain higher than those in the lower 400s seen prior to the pandemic for all-program draws, but the trend is downwards. Find out how to increase your CRS score here.

The reality is that, given the current trend, it seems unlikely that CRS scores for all-program draws will drop below 450 in 2023. 

However, given IRCC’s new powers to conduct different types of draws that could target specific occupations, this does not mean all is lost for those with score below that threshold.

The important message is that the trend is downwards and patience may be needed as it drops further. 

Provincial Nominee Program Draws

With PNP draws the pattern has always been more difficult to predict.

Candidates with provincial nominations score a further 600 points toward their Express Entry profiles. It effectively guarantees an invitation at the next all-program or PNP-specific draw.

It also means minimum CRS scores fluctuate significantly and never follow a set pattern. 

The important message from this is: keep trying to secure that job offer that could result in a provincial nomination.

PNP nomination allocations have increased across the board for 2023. 

Canada’s 10 provinces have a combined immigration target of 105,500 this year, the highest of any category. Ottawa is looking to give the provinces more power to choose immigrants that are right for their individual economies.

Express Entry in the Rest of 2023

Large numbers of ITAs are expected to continue in 2023, as Canada has a record immigration target to aim for.

Expect to see continued, large all-program draws as IRCC looks to invite enough people to meet that target.

Candidates have 60 days to submit an application after receiving an ITA, then IRCC has a six-month standard for processing applications.

It means that candidates invited today will not necessarily arrive this year, meaning IRCC is already thinking about meeting next year’s immigration target.

The types of draws IRCC conducts should also be closely watched in the remainder of 2023.

Last year, it changed Canada’s immigration law to allow it to issue industry and occupation-specific draws through Express Entry. So far, it has not used its new powers.

Stakeholders should expect to see IRCC move towards more targeted draws in the remainder of the year, as has been happening in the provinces for some time now.