Canada has revealed how many Study Permit applications each province will be allowed to receive under new caps on numbers of international students.

Immigration Minister Marc Miller says 235,600 approvals will be targeted in 2024 from 392,667 applications. This is down 42 per cent on the 404,668 issued (excluding K-12 + Grad) in 2023.

Under the cap, provinces have been allocated applications numbers based on their populations, with some adjustments.

Ontario is set to be the biggest loser, with a 41 per cent drop in projected approvals to 141,000 in 2024, from 239,753 (excluding K-12 + Grad) in 2023.

On the other hand, Alberta, Newfoundland and Labrador, Quebec, and Saskatchewan, will each see a 10% increase.

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Some provinces are showing an even greater increase if considering the top-up value. Quebec, for example, will have 43,629 Study Permit approvals without a top-up. With a top-up, however, it will have 117,917 approvals.

On January 22 of this year, IRCC announced a 360,000 cap on the number of international students who come to Canada in 2024, as a means of overcoming the loss of integrity of the International Student Program.

“International students are vital to Canada and enrich our communities. As such, we have an obligation to ensure that they have access to the resources they need for an enriching academic experience,” said Miller.

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“In Canada, today, this isn’t always the case. Today, we are announcing additional measures to protect a system that has become so lucrative that it has opened a path for its abuse. Enough is enough. Through the decisive measures announced today, we are striking the right balance for Canada and ensuring the integrity of our immigration system while setting students up for the success they hope for.”

This intake cap will result in a 35% decrease in the number of students coming to Canada this year in comparison to 2023.

The cap’s implementation includes the granting of a provincial/territorial attestation letter for every study permit application submission.

As per IRCC, many variables are set to influence the number of international students who come to Canada in 2024:

• provinces and territories with room to grow may not end up using their full allocations

• approval rates may change
• in-year adjustments may be required

The cap, according to Miller, is based on the amount of expiring study permits this year, the target for which was 485,000 approved study permits in 2024.

“About 20% of students apply for an extension each year and remain in the country. Therefore, IRCC subtracted that amount (97,000) from the target of 485,000 and set aside a small buffer to allow for other variations, resulting in a revised target of 364,000 approved study permits in 2024,” announced Miller.

“Accordingly, based on the national approval rate of 60% for study permit applications, the target of 364,000 approved study permits translates into a cap of 606,000 study permit applications received for 2024.”

For certain exempt groups of international students, such as primary and secondary school students and master’s or doctoral degree students, IRCC deducted their estimated volume (140,000 based on 2023 data) from the 2024 target number of approved study permits.

This resulted in a target of 236,000 approved study permits for 2024, which converts to roughly 393,000 study permit applications to be allocated under Miller’s
net zero first year growth model.

“For provinces that would receive more international students in 2024 than in 2023 based on population share, we adjusted their allocation to limit growth to 10% compared to 2023,” explained Miller.

Similarly, for those provinces that would get fewer international students in 2024 than in 2023, IRCC adjusted their allocation to lessen the negative impact in the first year and support more regional immigration goals.

At the same time, for provinces with approval rates lower than 60%, IRCC topped up allocations to help them reach their expected number of study permit approvals in 2024.

IRCC allocated about 552,000 study permit applications to provinces and territories under the national cap, which are expected to yield about 292,000 approved study permits.

This represents around a 28% reduction from 2023 for the groups under the cap.

The allocation model is as follows: